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Bagaimana Nasib Masa Depan Yaman, Saudi, dan UEA Setelah Ma’rib Dibebaskan?

Bagaimana Nasib Masa Depan Yaman, Saudi, dan UEA Setelah Ma’rib Dibebaskan?

POROS PERLAWANAN – Dilansir al-Alam, seiring kian dekatnya pembebasan Ma’rib oleh Tentara dan Komite Rakyat Yaman, AS meningkatkan upayanya untuk mencegah terjadinya momen menentukan tersebut, baik dengan cara “halus atau kasar”.

Pada Rabu lalu, Reuters mengklaim bahwa para Wakil AS dan Ansharullah berunding di Oman. Namun dari kubu Ansharullah tidak ada kabar apa pun selain kebulatan tekad untuk menyelesaikan pertempuran di Ma’rib dan membebaskannya.

Beberapa hari lalu, AS menjatuhkan sanksi atas dua orang bernama Saeedi dan Hamzi, dengan mengklaim bahwa mereka adalah Komandan Angkatan Laut dan Udara Ansharullah. Padahal di awal kepresidenan Joe Biden, Washington menghapus Ansharullah dari Daftar Terorisme bikinan Donald Trump.

Arti dari bujuk rayu dan intimidasi ini adalah bahwa dari satu sisi, AS khawatir akan kehilangan peluang di kancah diplomatik untuk berunding dengan Ansharullah soal masa depan Yaman dan menghalanginya membebaskan Ma’rib. Di sisi lain, AS sendiri juga tidak bisa yakin 100 persen akan keberhasilan cara diplomatik ini. Sebab itu, Washington mencabut Ansharullah dari Daftar Sanksi, tapi juga menambahkan nama-nama baru yang dilabeli sebagai para Komandan Ansharullah ke dalam daftar.

Di saat AS dan Saudi sangat mencemaskan pembebasan Ma’rib dan memilih untuk mengajak Ansharullah berunding sebelum hal itu terjadi, Ansharullah sendiri bersikeras untuk membebaskan Ma’rib, sehingga jika nanti ada perundingan, mereka bisa duduk di meja dengan memiliki posisi tawar yang lebih kuat dari sebelumnya.

Pada hakikatnya, pembebasan Ma’rib berarti bahwa Saudi dan Mansour Hadi tidak lagi bisa berbuat apa-apa di negeri Yaman. Di lain pihak, UEA tampaknya adalah pihak yang tidak punya beban pikiran tentang masa depan terkait krisis Yaman.

Ketenangan pikiran UEA ini lebih disebabkan proksi Abu Dhabi di selatan Yaman (Dewan Transisi Selatan); para wakil yang duduk nyaman di selatan dan tidak terlibat dalam pertempuran di Ma’rib. Mereka duduk menantikan kekalahan Saudi dan keluarnya Riyadh dari Yaman secara hina, dan setelah itu, mereka akan berunding dengan pemenang di front pertempuran utara, yaitu Ansharullah.

Ada beberapa hal yang membuat AS dan Saudi mencemaskan pembebasan Ma’rib:
Pertama, mulai saat ini, AS dan Saudi, mau tidak mau, harus menerima sebuah pemerintahan baru dari jenis Islam Politik di sisi Islam Wahabi.

Kedua, Saudi di perbatasannya harus menerima realita baru bernama Ansharullah.

Ketiga, Washington dan Riyadh mesti mengkhawatirkan tersebarnya pemikiran prokemerdekaan dan antiketergantungan, baik di Afrika atau Timur Tengah.

Keempat, munculnya penguasa baru bernama Ansharullah atas jalur perairan internasional seperti Bab al-Mandeb dan perairan internasional di sekitar Yaman.

Kelima, sia-sianya perang selama 6 tahun melawan rakyat tanpa senjata dan fasilitas lengkap, yang tentu sangat memalukan Saudi.

Apakah setelah pembebasan Ma’rib, Saudi bisa kembali mengklaim sebagai Pemimpin Dunia Islam? Apakah AS akan tetap memandang Saudi sebagai sekutu strategis, kuat, dan bisa dipercaya? Jawabannya mesti ditunggu terlebih dahulu.

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