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National Interest: AS Bakal Tanggung Biaya Perang Sangat Besar dan Kepayahan Jika Nekat Serang Iran

National Interest: AS Bakal Tanggung Biaya Perang Sangat Besar dan Kepayahan Jika Nekat Serang Iran

POROS PERLAWANAN – Majalah AS, National Interest (NI) dalam tulisannya mengutip penilaian dari Institut Stratfor bahwa dari sisi geografis, “Iran adalah sebuah benteng”.

Menurut media AS ini, mengingat kekuatan rudal Iran, tiap invasi militer AS ke wilayah negara itu akan memaksa Washington mengeluarkan biaya sangat besar.

Dilansir Fars, NI dalam laporannya membahas kemampuan pertahanan Iran dan fokus negara ini untuk meraih kemampuan melaksanakan strategi “Cegah Akses” atas AS. Dengan memiliki sejumlah besar rudal terpandu berpresisi tinggi, speedboat, drone, kapal selam, dan ranjau, Teheran dinilai bisa membuat Tentara AS kepayahan dalam pembiayaan perang.

NI kemudian menyinggung evaluasi dari CSBA (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments) soal bagaimana Iran menggunakan strategi “Cegah Akses” untuk melawan AS.

“Iran tengah mengembangkan sebuah strategi untuk membendung operasi-operasi AS di Teluk Persia. Strategi ini adalah gabungan dari taktik acak dan persenjataan nonkonvensional yang memiliki teknologi tinggi. Tujuannya adalah mencegah atau membatasi akses Tentara AS ke pangkalan-pangkalannya, juga membatasi Tentara AS bermanuver secara leluasa di Selat Hormuz.

“Strategi ‘Cegah Akses’ Iran ini bisa menggunakan karakteristik geografis dan politik regional untuk mengurangi efektivitas operasi militer AS”, tulis NI.

NI menambahkan, posisi geografis Iran sangat menguntungkan, sebab nyaris semua kota-kota penting negara ini berada di sebelah utara, yang akses ke wilayah-wilayah itu adalah sebuah tantangan sulit.

Lebih penting dari itu, tulis NI, Iran adalah sebuah negara yang sangat besar. Sesuai laporan Stratfor, Iran adalah negara terbesar ke-17 di dunia dengan luas 1.684.000 km persegi. Ini berarti Iran lebih besar dari gabungan wilayah Prancis, Jerman, Belanda, Belgia, Spanyol, dan Portugal.

Terkait kemampuan pertahanan IRGC, NI menyatakan bahwa dalam kondisi terbaik sekalipun, Tentara AS tidak bisa melancarkan operasi, sebab IRGC sudah lama menyusun program untuk menghadapi pasukan agresor yang berusaha menyusup ke kota-kota utara Iran.

Di akhir laporan, NI menyebut bahwa AS bisa menduduki Irak dan Afghanistan dengan mudah, kendati menghabiskan biaya besar. Namun terkait Iran, serangan ke negara itu sendiri sudah sangat sulit dan banyak tantangannya.

Sebab itu, menurut NI, mustahil Washington akan melakukan hal ini dalam waktu dekat. AS pun jangan berpikir untuk menyerang Iran, karena akan mendatangkan banyak masalah.


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